by Tony Palmeri
August 7, 2001
Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk yesterday announced her official entry into the race for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2002. Though she has entered the race relatively late, has little name recognition outside of Dane County, and will probably be outspent by the other announced Democratic candidates (Attorney General James Doyle, Congressman Tom Barrett, and State Senator Gary George), I think Falk has an excellent chance to win. Here's why:
1. Activist Support: At the Democratic Party convention in Stevens Point in June, Tom Barrett won by a landslide over Doyle in a Wispolitics.com straw poll. The poll was of party activists, many of whom tend to be in the liberal wing of the party and are not necessarily loyal to Barrett as much as seeking an alternative to the "moderate" Jim Doyle. Falk will easily cut into Barrett's support within the party activist group, especially those for whom environmental, educational, and womens' issues are important.
2. The Feingold Principle: When Russ Feingold first ran in the Democratic Primary for US Senator in 1992, better financed candidates Jim Moody and Joe Checota spent most of the primary season bashing each other and virtually ignoring Middleton's favorite son Feingold. Doyle and Barrett have already evidenced a strong dislike for each other, and the Doyle campaign has already taken Barrett to court to try to prevent the Congressman's federal campaign war chest from being used in the Wisconsin guberbatorial primary. Doyle's campaign issued a press release yesterday urging all the candidates to pledge to avoid negative campaigning, but the Doyle camp's pursuit of legal means to prevent Barrett from using his federal campaign funds calls the credibility of that urging into question. If Doyle and Barrett engage in a heated campaign against each other, Falk obviously benefits by being seen as the candidate taking the "high road."
3. The Milwaukee/Madison Factor: Primary elections have notoriously low voter turnout statewide, making the large counties of Dane and Milwaukee pivotal in deciding the winner. Gary George will run well in the city of Milwaukee, but the Milwaukee suburbs as well as all of Dane County will be heavily contested between Barrett, Doyle, and Falk. Barrett will do well in his Congressional District, perhaps splitting the suburban white-male vote with Doyle. That leaves Falk with a significant portion of the suburban Democratic "soccer moms" and a big advantage in liberal Dane County. Indeed, the Doyle people are so concerned about Falk's appeal to women (just as they are concerned at Margaret Farrow's appeal in the general election) that they have actually started a "Wisconsin Women For Doyle" web site.
4. The Gender Factor: Speaking of women, Falk if she wins the Democratic nomination will have the opportunity to be the first woman governor in the history of Wisconsin. As the Capital Times correctly noted, Falk will not win if she falls into the "let's make history" trap. On the other hand, being the only woman on the ballot for governor will not hurt her, especially in Milwaukee and Dane counties.
5. The Baldwin Brigade: Wisconsin's lone female member of the US Congress, Tammy Baldwin, attained and has kept that position largely by being able to energize mostly young activists at the grassroots level. Since Falk has governed Dane County mostly as a "centrist," she may not be able to count on the support of Baldwin or her followers. But if Falk decides to run as a progressive--her campaign announcement speech certainly leaned in that direction, then she has a shot at energizing the Baldwin base in Dane County. If she reaches out further to Green Party, Progressive Dane, and other third party activists, she might succeed in bringing a slew of new voters to the polls. Falk will also benefit from a probable endorsement by Emily's List, a pro-choice womens' organization that has contributed over $120,000 to Baldwin's two Congressional campaigns.
6. The Plurality Vote: According to Wisconsin election law, the gubernatorial primary winner only has to attain a plurality, not a majority, of the votes cast. That means that the winner of the primary will probably get no more than 33 to 40 percent of the ballots cast throughout the state. That means that if one candidate gets more than 40% of the vote in Dane and Milwaukee counties, he or she is probably going to win the primary. Unless big money and special interest maneuvering play a huge role in the primary, Falk has as good a chance to win Milwaukee and Madison counties as Barrett or Doyle.
Falk is clearly the underdog at this point. Attorney General Doyle is well-connected, well-funded, and may appeal strongly to those middle of the road (as well as some liberal) Democrats who may support him simply because they feel he has the best chance to beat the Republican in November of 2002. Likewise, Falk may not be able to cut into Tom Barrett's liberal base in the southeastern part of the state. Also, Gary George is an excellent platform speaker and debater, so no one should be surprised if he does better than expected on primary day.
Because of his financial and name recognition advantages, the Democratic Primary race for Governor is still Jim Doyle's to lose. However, Falk can win without any major slips in the Doyle campaign if she gets the support of party activists, if she takes the high road when the other candidates go negative, if she wins a majority of women voters, if she gets the Tammy Baldwin brigade on her side, and if she finishes first in Dane and Milwaukee counties. That's a lot of ifs to have to depend on; perhaps Falk's campaign slogan should be "Remember Feingold '92."
note: Tony Palmeri is an Associate Professor of Communication at UW Oshkosh. He ran as a Democrat for Wisconsin's 54th assembly district seat in 1996. He is co-producer and co-host (with former Oshkosh Mayor Jim Mather) of "Commentary," a weekly public affairs television program shown on Oshkosh cable channel 2.