Math 301 Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Fall 2016

Section 001 10:20 to 11:20, M W F

Instructor: Dr. Chris Edwards          Phone: 948-3969       Office: Swart 123

Classroom: Nurs Ed 148B    Text: Probability and Statistics, 8th ed., by Devore. Earlier editions of the text are also acceptable.

Recommended Calculator: TI-83, TI-83 Plus, or TI-84 Plus, by Texas Instruments. Other TI graphics calculators (like the TI-86) do not have the same statistics routines we will be using and may cause you troubles. We will also use computer software, such as MINITAB and R, to perform statistical work.

Catalog Description: Elementary probability models, discrete and continuous random variables, sampling and sampling distributions, estimation, and hypothesis testing. Prerequisite: Mathematics 172 with a grade of C or better.

Course Objectives: The goal of statistics is to gain understanding from data. This course focuses on critical thinking and active learning. Students will be engaged in statistical problem solving and will develop intuition concerning data analysis, including the use of appropriate technology. Specifically students will develop

¥     an awareness of the nature and value of statistics

¥     a sound, critical approach to interpreting statistics, including possible misuses

¥     facility with statistical calculations and evaluations, using appropriate technology

¥     effective written and oral communication skills

Liberal Arts Education: Math 301 is part of the University Studies Program (USP) as an EXPLORE course in the NATURE category, and contributes to an education in the Liberal Arts. In this sense, ÒLiberalÓ means ÒbroadÓ, and ÒArtsÓ means ÒskillsÓ, so that someone educated in the Liberal Arts is able to think critically and make connections to a variety of disciplines and fields. Someone educated in the Liberal Arts is a responsible member of society, is engaged in the community, and is able to understand the issues of the day. They are problem solvers, and have learned how to learn new skills and knowledge. The fields of Mathematics and Statistics are vital to a Liberal Arts education, as quantitative data is collected and used to create mathematical models in virtually every discipline. Statistics is the study of collecting and analyzing data, and making inferences from samples to populations. Being able to analyze data and draw conclusions from data through modeling is a vital component of an educated member of society.

Grading: Final grades are based on these 300 points:

 

Topic

Points

Tentative Date

Chapters

Exam 1

Summaries, Probability

53 pts.

October 12

1, 2, 3.1 to 3.3, 4.1 to 4.2

Exam 2

Distributions

53 pts.

November 14

3, 4, 5

Exam 3

Inference

53 pts.

December 16

7, 8

Group Presentations

15 Points Each

60 pts.

Various

 

Homework

9 Points Each

81 pts.

Mostly Weekly

 

Attendance is a very important component of success in my class because many of the skills and lessons we will learn will be a direct result of classroom activities that cannot be reproduced easily. Please attend class as often as you can. You are responsible for any material you miss. The Day By Day notes will help you greatly in this regard.

Grades: Grades will be assigned by the following schedule.

Grade

Points (Percent)

Grade

Points (Percent)

Grade

Points (Percent)

A

270 (90 %)

B-

231 (77 %)

D+

189 (63 %)

A-

261 (87 %)

C+

219 (73 %)

D

180 (60 %)

B+

249 (83 %)

C

210 (70 %)

D-

171 (57 %)

B

240 (80 %)

C-

201 (67 %)

F

170 or fewer

Homework: To demonstrate your competency in Statistics via written communication, I will collect several homework problems about once a week. The due dates are listed on the course outline below. While I will only be grading a few problems, I presume that you will be working on many more than just the ones I assign. I suggest that you work together in small groups on the homework for this class. I expect is a well thought-out, complete discussion of the problem. Please donÕt just put down a numerical answer; I want to see how you did the problem. (You wonÕt get full credit for just numerical answers.) The method you use and your description is much more important to me than the final numerical answer. Furthermore, as this is your opportunity to show me what you have learned, your submitted homework should be neatly written or typed, without crossed out sections or scribbles. Be professional and make your work products reflect your own professionalism. Important Grading Feature: If your homework percentage is lower than your exam percentage, I will replace your homework percentage with your exam percentage. Therefore, your final homework percentage cannot be lower than your exam percentage.

Presentations: There will be four presentations, each worth 15 points. The descriptions of the presentations are in the Day By Day Notes. I will assign you to your groups for these presentations, because I want to avoid you having the same members each time. I expect each person in a group to contribute to the work; however, you can allocate the work in any way you like. If a group member is not contributing, see me as soon as possible so I can make a decision about what to do. The topics are: 1 – Data Displays (September 26). 2 – Probability (October 10). 3 – Central Limit Theorem (November 21). 4 – Statistical Hypothesis Testing (December 14).

ePortfolio Information: Math 301 is part of the USP and is designated as an EXPLORE course in the NATURE category. Therefore, you will need to include several work products from the course in your ePortfolio. I have designated five problems in the attached Homework Problems as artifacts for your ePortfolio. You will need to scan each graded problem and include a paragraph written to your future self about describing how this problem fits into the overall purpose of Calculus as a discipline. You may want to compose these reflections paragraphs later in the course, after you have developed an appreciation of Calculus, instead of at the time the work is graded. Your CONNECT course that you take as the final part of the USP program will require you to look back on these artifacts, so you need to make sure you give yourself good products with which to work.

Office Hours: Office hours are times when I will be in my office to help you with the course. You may ask questions about your homework, about the text, about topics from class, or any other issues you may have. You will not be bothering me as I have set aside these times in my schedule solely for talking to students about coursework. There will be many other times when I am in my office. If I am in and not busy, I will be happy to help. My office hours for Fall 2016 semester are 10:20 to 11:00 Tuesday, 1:45 to 2:30 Monday and Wednesday, or by appointment.

Early Alert Information: To provide you with early feedback on your performance in the course, our class will participate in the Early Alert program. It is common for students to be unaware of or over-estimate their academic performance in classes, so this will help you be aware early on of your progress and provide strategies for success in the classroom. The registrarÕs office will send an email to students with academic and/or attendance issues during the 5th week of classes. If you receive such an email, be sure you read it carefully and arrange to meet with me or a counselor to develop an appropriate action plan.

Philosophy: I strongly believe that you, the student, are the only person who can make yourself learn. Therefore, whenever it is appropriate, I expect you to discover the mathematics we will be exploring. I do not feel that lecturing to you will teach you how to do mathematics. I hope to be your guide while we learn some mathematics, but you will need to do the learning. I expect each of you to come to class prepared to digest the dayÕs material. That means you will benefit most by having read each section of the text and the Day By Day notes before class.

My personal belief is that one learns best by doing. I believe that you must be truly engaged in the learning process to learn well. Therefore, I do not think that my role as your teacher is to tell you the answers to the problems we will encounter; rather I believe I should point you in a direction that will allow you to see the solutions yourselves. To accomplish that goal, I will find different interactive activities for us to work on. Your job is to use me, your text, your friends, and any other resources to become adept at the material. The Day By Day notes also include Skills that I expect you to attain.

 

Monday

Wednesday

Friday

September 5
NO CLASS

September 7 Day 1
Introduction

September 9 Day 2
Random Sampling
Section 1.1

September 12 Day 3
Graphical Summaries
Section 1.2

September 14 Day 4
Graphical Summaries
Section 1.2

September 16 Day 5
 Numerical Summaries
Sections 1.3 to 1.4

September 19 Day 6
Homework 1 Due
Intro to Probability
Sections 2.1 to 2.2

September 21 Day 7
Permutations, Combinations
Section 2.3

September 23 Day 8
 Permutations, Combinations
Section 2.3

September 26 Day 9
Presentation 1

September 28 Day 10
Trees
Section 2.4

September 30 Day 11
Homework 2 Due
BayesÕ, Independence
Section 2.5

October 3 Day 12
Coins, Dice, and RVÕs
Sections 3.1 to 3.2

October 5 Day 13
 RVÕs and Expected Values
Section 3.3

October 7 Day 14
Homework 3 Due
Continuous Distributions
Sections 4.1 to 4.2

October 10 Day 15
Presentation 2

October 12 Day 16
Exam 1

October 14 Day 17
Normal
Section 4.3

October 17 Day 18
Normal Problems
Section 4.3

October 19 Day 19
Gamma
Section 4.4

October 21 Day 20
Probability Plots
Section 4.6

October 24 Day 21
Homework 4 Due
Binomial
Section 3.4

October 26 Day 22
Binomial
Section 3.4

October 28 Day 23
Hypergeometric
Section 3.5

October 31 Day 24
Homework 5 Due
 Negative Binomial
Section 3.5

November 2 Day 25
Normal Approx to Binomial
Section 4.3

November 4 Day 26
Cauchy

November 7 Day 27
Linear Combinations, Central Limit Theorem
Section 5.3

November 9 Day 28
Homework 6 Due
More CLT
Sections 5.4 to 5.5

November 11 Day 29
Catch up Day
Chapter 5


November 14 Day 30
Exam 2

November 16 Day 31
m&mÕs
Section 7.1

November 18 Day 32
Confidence Intervals
Section 7.2

November 21 Day 33
Presentation 3

November 23
NO CLASS

November 25
NO CLASS

November 28 Day 34
Intro to Hypothesis Testing
Section 8.1

November 30 Day 35
Homework 7 due
Z-Procedures
Sections 7.3 and 8.2

December 2 Day 36
Testing Simulations
Section 8.4

December 5 Day 37
t-procedures
Section 8.2

December 7 Day 38
Homework 8 Due
More t-procedures
Section 8.2

December 9 Day 39
Proportions
Sections 7.2 and 8.3

December 12 Day 40
Homework 9 Due
Review

December 14 Day 41
Presentation 4

December 16 Day 42
Exam 3


 

Link to Homework for Fall 2016 semester.

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Managed by: chris edwards

Last updated August 13, 2016